Denver/Boulder forecast discussion

Discussion /Through Thursday/

Issued at 1258 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Moisture continues to advect into the area, bringing scattered showers this afternoon and evening. The highest chance for precipitation today will be in the higher terrain, specifically Park County and surrounding areas. We are starting to see some high based showers and virga try and move off o the higher terrain and into the plains. Right now, the rain is struggling to reach the ground, but as we get further into the afternoon and evening we could see some light rain make it to the surface across the urban corridor and plains. In the mountains, snow levels remain around 12,500ft to 13,000ft today.

Drier air will briefly move through the flow aloft on Friday as dry air wraps around the trough. Precip chances will decrease and temperatures will be well above normal Friday afternoon. Winds will increase at upper levels, putting 700mb winds around 25kts to 40kts across our southeastern counties. Mostly clear skies and mostly unidirectional winds in the column could allow for winds to occasionally mix down in the afternoon, creating gusts around 25 to 40mph along and south of I-76.

A cold front will move into our northern counties late Friday, progressing through the area overnight. By mid Saturday morning, models have the front sitting just to the south and east of our CWA. Winds behind the front will be breezy from the north/northeast and winds ahead of the front will be breezy from the south, leading to strong surface convergence. This combined with lift ahead of the upper trough will allow for showers and storms Saturday afternoon. The front will act as the initial trigger for convection, with a line of showers and storms developing along it. As we go into the late afternoon and evening however, coverage should start to expand further north covering more of our area. Precip chances will continue into Sunday as QG lift ahead of the trough continues. The highest rain chances and rain amounts this weekend will be wherever that front sets up for Saturday (which right now looks to be south of our area). Amounts will decrease the further north we go from the front. Snow levels will drop closer to 9,000ft as the cooler temps move in this weekend. Scattered light rain and snow showers are expected throughout the weekend and into Monday for the higher terrain. Snow amounts will generally remain on the lower end (<2 inches), with the potential for some higher amounts in the Mosquito Range area.

Models are hinting at a reenforcement of the cold air on Monday as surface high pressure builds to our northeast. This could keep temperatures below normal again for Monday, before we start to see some warmer temps later in the week . The progression of the upper trough varies between models. The Euro is a bit slower tracking east, which keeps upper forcing around for a bit longer, extending rain chances into Monday. However, we could also see a faster progression of the trough, leading to rain chances ending late Sunday. Weak upper level ridging and zonal flow aloft will build in behind the trough, leading to drier and slightly warmer conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Saturday/

Issued at 514 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions are favored to prevail for the terminals through the TAF period, however occasional CIGS with bases 070-080 can be expected through this evening. A secondary wave of weak SHRA looks possible in the 04-08Z timeframe this evening (~30% chance), which may result in periods of breezier SW gusts near 25 kts. Outside of this, expected steady S/SW flow of 10-15 kts for KDEN/KAPA, with a marked increase Fri AM. It appears increasingly likely that sustained speeds 12-18 kts and gusts 22-28 kts will impacts KDEN and KAPA throughout the day, with KBJC remaining much more on the fringe of the stronger winds.

Bou Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...BRQ