Key messages
- Well above average temperatures Thursday and Friday, followed by near average temperatures this weekend into next week.
- There is a medium chance for scattered weak thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Main hazard would be lightning.
Discussion
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
...Synopsis...
Blocked upper ridging remains over the central CONUS, with upper troughing over the West Coast. This upper ridging is driving well above average temperatures in the 70s currently over the region. Weak embedded impulse moving through the flow is utilizing weak instability aloft, helping spark scattered rain/virga showers in northeast ND and northwest MN this afternoon into evening. Dry air in the lower levels will prevent much of this precipitation from reaching the ground, thus added sprinkles to the forecast to account for this.
On Friday, well above average temperatures will occur once more with widespread 70s forecast during the day. While temperatures will be mild, gusty southerly winds 20-40 mph will also build starting Friday by late morning, lasting through the day.
Upper trough in the West will attempt to break eastward, although all guidance suggests this will occur in a split-flow- like regime, with the northern branch of the upper trough in northern CONUS and Canada separating from the southern branch lingering in the Southwest. As it does this, it brings sufficient moisture and lift to bring scattered showers Friday afternoon into evening. Most guidance also indicates at sufficient instability aloft to bring lightning/thunderstorms into the conversation. A lack of better instability, moisture, and wind shear spacing will mitigate how strong thunderstorms will be - likely keeping storms weak.
Strong cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday driven by the northern branch of the upper trough. This ends our well above average temperatures, with most locations seeing daily high temperatures Saturday occur just ahead of this cold front, occurring early morning Saturday.
This strong cold front will also bring additional round of gusty winds - this time out of the west. Winds have a medium to high chance in reaching advisory-criteria (ie sustained 30-40 mph, gusts 45-55 mph) in eastern ND west of the Red River Valley, with slightly lower but still gusty winds elsewhere.
Temperatures turn more average with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows around freezing next week. An additional chance for light rain comes around Monday, but confidence is low in this due to disagreement in modeled guidance regarding whether or not sufficient forcing for ascent will spread into our region. At this time, light snow looks unlikely, but cannot be completely ruled out should forcing for ascent move through overnight.
Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Saturday/
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the TAF period at all sites. A stray shower is possible this evening, however, chances are quickly diminishing as the sun sets. Winds remain out of the southeast overnight and into Friday, with increasing cloud cover through the day on Friday. VFR ceilings are likely to continue, with a chance for showers or a stray thunderstorm during the afternoon, especially for KFAR, KBJI, and KTVF. Friday's winds remain out of the southeast, but will increase into the 15-25 knot range sustained, with gusts in the 30-35 knot range.
Fgf Watches/Warnings/Advisories
ND...None. MN...None.
DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...Lynch