Key messages
- Abnormal warmth continues into this weekend as temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal are expected.
- Low precipitation potential exists late Saturday into early Sunday (10-20%), increasing slightly Monday through Tuesday (30-40%).
- Temperatures trend cooler and towards normal through the beginning of next week.
Discussion
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Tonight - Saturday: Abnormal Warmth Continues; Low Precipitation Potential
Upper level ridging and anomalously high 500hPa heights remain situated across much of the central United States through at least Saturday while southerly flow and weak warm air advection continue under said ridge resulting in 850hPa temperatures around 10-14C. Given these warm temperatures aloft, continue to expect abnormal warmth as we head into the weekend, roughly 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Upper level troughing begins to move across the United States/Canada border tonight, phasing with a shortwave that ejects off a cutoff low across the southwest United States. Surface cyclogenesis occurs over the northern Great Plains on Friday as a result, leading to a developing 850hPa low level jet from Nebraska into northern Minnesota Friday afternoon. Given the proximity of the LLJ to our area along with some weak 700-500hPa PVA associated with the shortwave, can't rule out a few light showers/sprinkles for our northern counties Friday afternoon as suggested by several of the CAMs. However, the vast majority of the region is expected to remain dry as soundings depict dry air below 10kft where the strongest forcing will occur and rather weak forcing within the saturated upper portions of the atmosphere. Current probabilities for light showers/sprinkles only sit around 10%.
As the upper level trough and attendant surface low continue eastward Saturday, the cold front associated with these features slows down and becomes quasi-stationary across Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. Moisture pools along the boundary as southerly flow continues across the region which combined with forcing along the front and stronger 700-500hPa PVA should lead to some precipitation development throughout the day Saturday. However, because the boundary largely remains to our west, most of the region is again expected to be dry with only those north and west of an Austin, MN to Wausau, WI line having 10-20% probabilities to see some light rain.
Sunday - Wednesday: Greater Precipitation Potential, Trending Cooler
The quasi-stationary boundary slowly sags southward throughout the day Sunday though moisture begins to become more limited with time and forcing becomes far more nebulous as this feature becomes separated from its upper level support. While some light showers are possible Sunday mainly for those north of I-90, probabilities have come down slightly, sitting around 10-20% in the 22.13z NBM though as high as 30-40% per the AIFS Ens and AIGEFS. Regardless, amounts should remain under 0.1".
Greater precipitation potential exists Monday through Tuesday as the cutoff low across the Desert Southwest begins to lift northward. How this feature evolves as it moves northward and where the heaviest rainfall associated with it will occur remains rather uncertain though. The GEFS/AIGEFS members largely suggest the low takes a more southern trajectory, keeping higher probabilities for precipitation across a majority of the Upper Mississippi River Valley (60-80%) whereas the EPS/AIFS Ens on the other hand suggest a more northern and western solution, keeping higher probabilities across Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. Given the uncertainty, probabilities for precipitation remain on the lower end, currently sitting around 30-40% in the 22.13z NBM though these probabilities may increase as the models begin to converge on a solution.
Other than precipitation potential, the passage of the quasi- stationary front on Sunday will allow cooler temperatures to begin filtering into the Upper Midwest. There is a great deal of spread within the 25th-75th and 10th-90th percentiles of the ensemble guidance related to the temperature forecast Monday through Wednesday however, around 10 and 20 degrees respectively, due in no small part to the different scenarios mentioned above. That said, the overall trend is towards more seasonable temperatures through the beginning of the new week.
Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Saturday/
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Increased off surface winds expected to limit river valley FG affecting KLSE TAF site overnight. Increased south surface winds expected through Friday, initially increasing through the morning hours primarily west of the Mississippi River Valley affecting KRST TAF site.
Arx Watches/Warnings/Advisories
WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.
DISCUSSION...Falkinham AVIATION...JAR