Key messages
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief heavy rain, small hail, and lightning will remain possible through this evening.
- Drier conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this weekend and early next week.
Discussion
through next Thursday.
A large 564dm low continues to slowly meander across central California this afternoon, with a strong and deep southerly flow out ahead of it. This flow pattern has entrained some deeper surface moisture north into the region over the past couple days, and as the low moves inland today, cooler air aloft is moving in helping to add to the instability present. This is sparking a few corridors of strong thunderstorm activity again this afternoon. Deep layer shear of 40-50 knots or greater is resulting in very fast northward storm motions which is helping to limit the flood threat, but enhancing the risk of small to potentially quarter sized hail. This risk will remain present through the evening hours before instability begins to wane and the corridor of instability and wind shear shifts eastward.
By tomorrow, the low will have moved inland and begun to weaken considerably, but weak troughing will remain over head with lingering terrain driven showers possible. Conditions will continue to dry through the weekend and next week with temperatures returning to near normal.
Aviation
For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Southwest winds will continue to gust to around 20KT through about 03Z, at which points gusts should end but expect south winds at 8-10KT through the first part of the night. Lighter winds arrive between 09Z-12Z when they become light and variable for the rest of the night into Friday morning. Winds on Friday will remain under 8KT, becoming east in the afternoon before backing to the northwest around sunset. There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms early this evening around the area, which could bring brief moderate rainfall, lightning, and CIGs down to 5000ft. By 03Z, showers will diminish and a dry forecast is expected the rest of the TAF period.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will persist into the evening, with the highest chances in Inyo County into the Southern Great Basin. Precipitation will end overnight and other than a few showers in the terrain of Inyo County on Friday, it will be dry across the region the rest of the TAF period. Southwest winds will continue to gust 20- 30KT through about sunset, then winds will slowly diminish tonight. WInds will drop below 10KT areawide by Friday morning and will generally remain at or below 10KT through Friday, favoring the north to northeast in the afternoon.
Spotter Information Statement
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.
DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Nickerson
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