Key messages
- Locally dense fog possible again early Friday morning, especially northeast of Fort Wayne, IN.
- Tranquil fall weather continues with mild temperatures, light winds, and sunshine.
Discussion
Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
A largely stagnant synoptic pattern will allow for mild and dry conditions to continue likely through the end of October. Upper air observations reveal a large upper level ridge building over the central CONUS this morning; as it gradually continues to build, the ridge will shift eastward in the coming days. An Omega Block pattern is likely to setup with sinking air underneath the ridge yielding lots of sun, mild temperatures, and light winds. With an expansive area of surface high pressure also expected to anchor over the eastern US, this pattern will likely remain through the weekend into early next week. Expect several days of rinse and repeat weather with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows in the low to mid 40s each day.
Very few changes were made to the forecast today as a persistence forecast was largely utilized through early next week. No rainfall is expected over the next 7 days; It is starting to become evident that while a cold front may move through around next Tuesday, there will not be sufficient forcing and moisture available for any rainfall with it. Towards the middle of next week, temperature generally trend towards normal with highs around 60 degrees as the aforementioned synoptic pattern breaks down.
With the stagnant pattern locked in place, clear skies, and light flow will likely yield some patchy dense fog overnight into early Friday morning. Best chances for fog will likely be northeast of Fort Wayne, IN. Much like the past few nights, the best timeframe for dense fog will be between 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday, with the lowest visibilities around daybreak. A SPS or Dense Fog Advisory may be needed overnight depending on trends and where any fog develops.
Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Saturday/
Issued at 638 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions anticipated for both TAF sites through this period. There will be a threat of stratus/fog overnight and expected to remain to the east/north of KFWA and well away from KSBN.
Iwx Watches/Warnings/Advisories
IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None.
DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Andersen