What Has Changed
* Nothing appreciable.
Key Messages
As of 121 PM Thursday...
1) Dry weather forecast through the middle of next week with near normal temperatures.
Discussion
As of 121 PM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather forecast through the middle of next week with near normal temperatures.
High pressure remains in place across western PA this afternoon, with ridging extending southward through the Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile Subtropical Storm Josephine remains off the coast of New England and continues to rapidly accelerate away from the CONUS as it treks northeastward. Looking aloft, a dry mid level shortwave trough is diving southward through central PA into MD, while broad longwave ridging remains in place across the entirety of the eastern US.
The dry shortwave will move through late tonight into Friday, with little impact to our daily weather other than to increase cloud cover as winds take on a more northeasterly component through the day. Post-frontal stratocu is forecast across the Coastal Plain and Northeast Piedmont on Friday in the wake of the front as winds take on a more northeasterly component, although there should still be more clouds than sun. Temps should be a few degrees cooler Friday afternoon vs. today.
After that, weak high pressure should build in again from the north, allowing temperatures to moderate a bit but still remain within a category of normal for late October. Another dry shortwave trough could swing through the area by the middle of next week but precip chances look remote at best and we'll stick with a dry forecast for the entirety of the next 7 days.
Aviation /00Z Friday Through Tuesday/
As of 800 PM Thursday...
High confidence of VFR conditions across central NC through the 24 hour TAF period.
Surface high pressure will move into New England on Friday and extend into central NC with an minor increase in low level moisture which will result in some FEW to SCT diurnal fair weather stratocumulus clouds with bases around 3.5kft across eastern locations. Otherwise skies should be clear. Light north winds at 5kts or less will become calm in many location overnight. Winds will increase a bit and become more northeasterly on Friday afternoon with winds around 7 to 10kts and a few gusts to around 16kts, especially across eastern areas.
Outlook: Generally fair weather with VFR conditions are expected through early next week. It's worth noting that a few areas or periods of marginal MVFR stratocumulus clouds are possible starting Saturday and continuing into early next week. &&
Rah Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
DISCUSSION...Leins AVIATION...Blaes