Key Messages
Updated at 517 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday as moisture moves north into the region. Some stronger storms could result in flash flooding, damaging winds, and large hail. Showers/storms likely limited to Otero/Hudspeth Counties Sunday and Monday.
- Temperatures will be cooling down below normal by Saturday and beyond.
Discussion
Issued at 1149 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026
An active pattern setting up across the region as the upper low that has brought severe weather to AZ has moved onshore into CA and the southwest flow over the Borderland continues to increase. Dew points currently up into the 50s for much of the CWA and instability/shear increasing. CAPE values near AZ border approaching 1000J/kg and combined with 35-45KTS shear, severe storms are possible. Also, KLSB observation currently 13013G22KTS would add to some increased 0-1km low level shear/helicity. Could see a tornado develop with initial storms which will likely occur by 20Z. Tornado watch will be out until early evening. Looking like heavy rain threat with training possibilities over the Gila region and possibly down into northern Hidalgo, so will leave Flood Watch as is. Rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.0" with localized 2-3" possible.
As we go into Fri-Sat, upper low becomes established over AZ and will be slow to move out. There will be a shift in higher PoPs toward the RGV for Fri and then eastern areas for Sat. Increasing mid level flow with a SSE surface wind will continue to keep shear values high and instability will be there as well, so severe threat continues. Not sure the tornado threat will be as high as today though. Again, locally heavy rain will be possible with the above normal PW's and training threat there. NBM PoPs seemed reasonable and higher than the operational GFS, but more in line with the GEFS which puts high chance to low likely PoPs to the RGV. May need to put a Flood Watch out later for at least Hudspeth and Otero counties.
Sunday is the questionable day. Model trend is to slow down the timing of the upper low moving out. The trough axis will at least remain off to our west through 00Z Mon and with that, will keep some PoPs going east of the Rio Grande Valley. Best moisture will be moving out, but still some convective potential for moderate rainfall and a marginal severe threat over far eastern zones.
Still keeping a slight trough through the east even into Monday with some rain chances continuing and even a continued low severe threat. Tuesday looks drier with ridge passing overhead but rain chances return Wed. Temperatures by Sunday will be getting closer to normal and remain there.
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Lower VFR conditions through the period with SCT080 BKN150 BKN250. Isolated OVC050 3-5SM TSRA west of Deming, but slowly spreading east to the Rio Grande Valley this evening. Large hail and wind gusts to 45 knots possible with some of these storms. South to southeast winds 8-12G20 knots becoming variable AOB 7 knots after 03Z.
Fire Weather
Issued at 1149 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Fire threat remains low will another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Temperatures will be cooling to near normal with RH's remaining above 30%. Some thunderstorms will be severe over the coming days and wind gusts over 50mph will be possible with the strongest storms.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
El Paso 65 84 60 80 / 30 40 70 60 Sierra Blanca 61 82 57 79 / 0 10 50 40 Las Cruces 60 78 54 75 / 40 40 60 50 Alamogordo 62 80 55 76 / 30 40 80 80 Cloudcroft 48 59 42 55 / 20 50 80 80 Truth or Consequences 58 74 54 71 / 70 40 60 50 Silver City 54 69 48 66 / 90 50 20 30 Deming 58 78 54 75 / 70 40 30 20 Lordsburg 58 75 53 74 / 60 20 0 10 West El Paso Metro 67 83 61 79 / 30 40 70 50 Dell City 63 85 57 79 / 10 20 70 80 Fort Hancock 67 91 63 84 / 10 20 60 60 Loma Linda 60 78 55 73 / 20 30 70 70 Fabens 65 88 61 84 / 30 40 70 60 Santa Teresa 63 81 58 77 / 40 40 70 50 White Sands HQ 65 82 59 78 / 30 40 80 60 Jornada Range 61 79 55 75 / 50 40 70 60 Hatch 60 80 55 77 / 60 50 60 50 Columbus 62 81 57 78 / 50 30 20 20 Orogrande 61 81 55 76 / 20 50 80 80 Mayhill 53 71 48 64 / 10 40 80 90 Mescalero 52 70 46 66 / 20 50 80 90 Timberon 50 67 44 62 / 20 60 80 90 Winston 50 68 45 64 / 90 40 50 50 Hillsboro 56 74 52 71 / 70 50 50 40 Spaceport 58 75 52 72 / 50 40 70 60 Lake Roberts 50 69 44 66 / 90 60 30 40 Hurley 54 71 48 69 / 90 50 30 30 Cliff 58 73 48 70 / 80 50 20 30 Mule Creek 55 70 48 67 / 80 50 20 20 Faywood 56 71 51 68 / 80 60 40 30 Animas 58 78 53 74 / 40 10 0 10 Hachita 59 78 54 74 / 60 30 0 20 Antelope Wells 60 81 54 77 / 30 10 0 10 Cloverdale 57 73 50 70 / 30 10 0 10
Epz Watches/Warnings/Advisories
TX...None. NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.
FORECASTER...17-Hefner