Key Messages
Updated at 628 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Rain chances increase from west to east late Friday through the weekend, with highest rain chances over our western areas Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding over SE NM, especially on Saturday.
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue through most of tomorrow. Southeasterly winds become breezy each afternoon this weekend.
- Temperatures trend cooler this weekend into early next week.
Short Term
(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Mid to upper level ridging currently resides over Texas, centered near the Texas/Coahuila border. Below the ridge, conditions remain dry, and highs top out in the 70s in the higher terrain and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, and 80s for most. Tomorrow's highs will be roughly similar, give or take a few degrees. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night settle in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Through the Short Term period, an upper level trough begins to traverse the Desert Southwest. As it crawls toward our region southwesterly flow and moisture increases aloft, and heights gradually decrease. Meanwhile, a developing lee trough in the Plains brings breezy southeasterly winds to the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and SE NM tomorrow afternoon and evening. Dry conditions are ahead for most tomorrow, but isolated (10-20% chance) showers and storms may develop over portions of SE NM during the late afternoon. Rain chances trend upward (10-40%) across SE NM and far west Texas tomorrow night. More active weather awaits us in the Long Term period. Details below...
Long Term
(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
An upper level shortwave translates over the Desert Southwest through the weekend, gradually lifting from SoCal/AZ toward the central Plains. As this system nears, disturbances within southwesterly flow aloft pair with increased moisture to bring increasing rain chances and a potential for flash flooding over SE NM. Isolated to scattered (20-60% chance) showers/storms are forecast over the western half of our region Saturday. Rain chances increase and spread nearly areawide Saturday evening into Sunday, when coverage becomes scattered to numerous. The best rain chances will tend to favor SE NM and our westernmost counties over the weekend. Rounds of occasionally heavy rainfall over portions of SE NM may result in localized flash flooding, especially on Saturday. We will refrain from issuing a Flash Flood Watch for SE NM on Saturday with this forecast package, but may reconsider within the next few issuances. Stay tuned for any updates! Given the proximity of an upper ridge to our east, rainfall over eastern portions of our area look to be relatively lighter. The main shortwave lifts into the central and northern Plains Monday into Tuesday, sending a cold front southward in its wake. Upper troughing remains in place early next week, before subtle ridging builds back in around mid week. Thus, additional disturbances keep at least low rain chances in the forecast through Tuesday.
Aside from active weather, the Long Term period features a gradual cooling trend due to lowering heights, cloudier skies, and wetter conditions. Highs Saturday are forecast to reach the 70s to mid 80s (primarily in/near the river valleys). Highs in the 70s become more prevalent Sunday onward, with upper 60s creeping into our northern counties.
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions and breezy southeasterly winds are expected through the next six hours. MVFR to IFR CIGs look to develop between 08Z-16Z timeframe across most terminals. Low confidence of MVFR/IFR CIGs are prevalent at CNM and PEQ sites, though further amendments may be necessary.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Big Spring 61 82 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 60 84 61 77 / 0 10 20 70 Dryden 63 81 63 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 62 83 61 79 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 59 78 57 71 / 0 10 50 70 Hobbs 59 79 58 73 / 0 0 10 40 Marfa 53 78 56 76 / 0 0 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 62 80 61 77 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 63 80 62 77 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 62 83 62 79 / 0 0 0 30
Maf Watches/Warnings/Advisories
TX...None. NM...None.
SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...11