Key messages
- A gradual warming trend will continue through Friday, with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal during the weekend.
- Increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms early next week.
Short Term
(This evening through Friday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Quiet weather continues for our area in the short term with an upper level ridge our dominant feature. This ridge is centered over Texas today, and will shift into East Texas on Friday. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with light southeast to south winds. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 50s in our southeastern counties, to the upper 50s to around 60 in the Big Country. Temperatures will be warm again on Friday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and afternoon highs 80-85 degrees. South to southeast winds will increase and become somewhat breezy. By afternoon expect wind speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph.
Long Term
(Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
The aforementioned upper level ridge will slowly shift east and build over the Mississippi Valley this weekend, while an upper trough moves from the Southwest to the Four Corners area. With moistening low-level south-southeast flow, expect an increase in cloud cover during the weekend. Temperatures will be above normal, and the increase in low-level moisture and cloud cover will reduce to some extent the daily diurnal range in temperatures. Expect highs to be mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday and mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday. Surface pressure gradient and nocturnal low- level jet development will support somewhat gusty south to southeast winds over the weekend.
The upper trough will move east across Colorado/New Mexico Sunday night and into the central/southern Plains on Monday. Expect showers associated with this trough to occur in western and northwestern parts of Texas Sunday, but a few showers may develop or move into our far western counties in the afternoon and evening. With some upper support with the aforementioned trough, the area generally west of a Haskell to San Angelo to Sonora line will have a low chance (15-30 percent) of showers and possibly a thunderstorm Monday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will be possible across a larger/expanded part of our area Monday night and Tuesday. A weak cold front may move as far south as our northern counties by Tuesday. This would provide an additional focus for possible showers and a few storms. Daily highs should trend down into the mid to upper 70s Monday, and lower to mid 70s on Tuesday. Wednesday looks dry and a little warmer when a shortwave upper ridge is progged to move over Texas.
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Mainly VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with southeast winds becoming light and variable overnight. There is a low chance (<20%) of some scattered MVFR to IFR ceilings west of Sonora, including Ozona, from 12Z to 15Z tomorrow morning. Otherwise, southerly to southeasterly winds will increase to 10-12KT by 18Z with gusts around 20 through 00Z.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Abilene 60 84 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 59 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 57 83 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 56 83 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 61 83 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 59 80 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 57 81 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
Sjt Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...SK