Key Messages
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Low to moderate (30-60%) rain chances today, mainly along the coast and Coastal Bend. Highest chances will be across the coastal waters.
- Minor coastal flooding will remain possible through the week.
- Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Wednesday.
Discussion
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Coastal trough moving in over Deep South Texas this afternoon with most associated shower activity south of our forecast area. Have limited PoPs for the afternoon to 20% mainly south and southwest. Not expecting much more than drizzle or some light showers. Surface winds are shifting back to the east and will eventually be southeast over the next couple of days which will keep the elevated low level moisture, though some slightly drier air may drift into our northern areas behind a weak boundary briefly tomorrow afternoon.
Rain chances will be pretty minimal through the weekend though a weak shortwave on Saturday will warrant a low (20%) chance for a few showers. PWAT values are not impressive (only around 1-1.25", so not expecting much. By early next week We'll see a shift in the mid/upper level pattern with ridging shifting off to the east as a low pressure center moves into the center of the country. This will bring another front near the area, but a consensus of guidance at this time suggests it doesn't have the strength to push all the way through - at least not with enough strength to really notice it. We will have a medium chance for showers and storms Tuesday into Wednesday through.
Overall temperatures are expected to be fairly seasonal in terms of highs and a bit above normal for lows.
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
MVFR to VFR conditions during the overnight/early morning hours. There's a low (10-20%) chance for MVFR VSBYs at COT/LRD due to fog but have left out of TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions return Friday morning with southeasterly winds gusting up to 15-20 KT in the afternoon.
Marine
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Moderate to gentle easterly to southeast winds persist through the upcoming weekend and into next week. Rain chances will be minimal through the weekend, but increase heading into early next week.
Fire Weather
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
RH values decrease to near low levels inland tomorrow, but winds will remain light. Otherwise expect moderate RH values through the period. Rain chances are minimal until Tuesday when moderate chances are expected with a passing mid-level disturbance. Temperatures will be seasonal through the period.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Corpus Christi 66 84 71 85 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 59 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 67 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 62 86 66 86 / 0 0 0 20 Rockport 71 84 74 85 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 63 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 64 84 68 85 / 0 0 0 20 Navy Corpus 73 81 76 82 / 0 0 0 10
Crp Watches/Warnings/Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.
DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...BF/80