Key Messages
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Low to medium (30-60%) chances of intermittent light to moderate, locally heavy, showers across the coastal counties and the RGV are expected to give way to dry conditions this evening.
- Minimal rain chances are anticipated to continue tonight into the beginning of next week before low to medium chances of rain return by possibly Tuesday.
- Near average temperatures and patchy to widespread minor risks of heat-related illnesses (level 1/4) continue.
- A medium risk of rip currents continues through tonight, becoming a low risk tomorrow morning.
Discussion
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
The back end of a mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the eastern periphery of a 588-591 dam high pressure aloft continues passing over deep south Texas today, working with 1.8-2.0 in. PWAT to push an area of intermittent, isolated to scattered showers of light to moderate, locally heavy, intensity southwestward across the remainder of the RGV into this afternoon, bringing a low to medium (30-60%) chance of rain, highest along/east US-281 and I-69 C. In general, most areas that receive rainfall are likely to see around 0.10 of an inch or less, though up to a half inch is possibly within heavier downpours. As the shortwave moves south of the RGV later this afternoon, subsidence is anticipated to build aloft, leading to dry conditions this evening through tomorrow night as the high pressure eventually passes over and northeast of our region. Following, aside from some weakness in the mid layers leading to a low (15-20%) chance of rain over portions of the RGV on Saturday, dry conditions are progged to prevail into possibly Monday as the high pressure aloft drifts southward and offshore the Texas coastline.
The next opportunity for rain is expected to result from the passage of a mid/upper level trough as it exits the Desert Southwest and Rockies to the Plains, spreading low to medium (30-50%) chances of rain inland, beginning possibly Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. Daily low or low to medium chances may persist into the later parts of next week as another upstream trough could begin to deepen offshore the western Mexico coastline. Above average moisture content during this timeframe of unsettled weather might also lead to periods of moderate to heavy rain, though a fair amount of uncertainty exists at this time.
Near average temperatures are expected, maximizing in the 80s and possibly low 90s while falling to the 60s inland and lower 70s closer to and along the coast overnight. Daytime temperatures may trend to slightly below average by Tuesday as cloud coverage builds.
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle, but lingering coastal moisture may bring light rain and briefly lower clouds this evening as showers move out of the area, particularly at MFE. Winds become light and variable overnight, generally easterly, before increasing to around 10 kts from the southeast Friday morning.
Marine
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas are expected to give way to Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions by Saturday morning, persisting through Saturday night, or into Sunday, as winds increase to moderate to fresh with moderate (4-6 ft) seas. Gentle to moderate easterly winds resume by Monday though swell resulting from breezy winds over the central and eastern Gulf could maintain moderate seas through the remainder of the forecast period. Meanwhile, dry conditions are likely to return this evening and continue through this weekend. Unsettled weather is anticipated to return in the beginning of next week.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
BROWNSVILLE 70 86 73 86 / 0 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 67 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 70 90 71 90 / 10 0 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 90 69 90 / 10 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 80 76 81 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 10
Bro Watches/Warnings/Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.
SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM....65 AVIATION...69-HK