Key messages
- Quiet weather and mostly dry conditions will continue through the weekend.
- A change in the weather pattern is expected next week, bringing cooler temperatures and at least low rain chances.
Short Term
(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Not much change in the weather pattern in the short-term as an upper-level ridge remains in control over the region. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer today and tomorrow with highs mainly in the mid 80s as the surface flow steadily returns to the south. A blanket of mid-to-high level clouds will continue to spread eastward associated with the storm system impacting the Southwest U.S. Cloud coverage will increase tonight and tomorrow but no other impacts are expected. Otherwise, dry weather will continue across much of the state.
Long Term
(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
The main story of the extended forecast continues to be the pattern change for next week that will bring some "fall-like" temperatures and low rain chances to the region. We will begin to see the transition over the weekend as the main ridge gets displaced to our east and an approaching trough get closer from the west. As we have been advertising over the last several days, this system won't bring much change for us as it is expected to track northward and far from our region. The low rain chances initially anticipated for our northwestern counties on Sunday are now less than 10% with most of the activity staying mainly across West TX and the TX Panhandle. As the system continues its progression Monday and Tuesday, we could see some showers approach areas west of I-35. Coverage will remain around 20-30% as moisture will be fairly limited over our area. The good news is that we will enjoy some cooler temperatures with highs staying in the 70s to lower 80s.
A second wave is expected to push eastward towards the late week period. Most of the guidance shows better rain chances during that 8-10 day period. This system may even bring a stronger cold front just in time for the Halloween festivities. Stay tuned!
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
A surface ridge centered to our northeast and a broad pressure gradient will keep light southeast winds in place through Friday. High clouds associated with an upper low over the Desert Southwest will occasionally drift overhead, otherwise high pressure aloft will maintain VFR and quiet conditions as we approach the weekend. Will continue with the simple one-line TAFs for the upcoming forecast cycle.
Spotter Information Statement
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 57 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 53 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 58 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 57 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 61 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 56 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 57 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 57 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 57 84 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
Fwd Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...30