Key Messages
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Slightly above average warmth and prolonged dry conditions will maintain an elevated wildfire risk throughout much of the 7-day forecast period.
- The lack of appreciable rainfall and growing rainfall deficit will result in further drought degradation through the end of this month.
- Longer range guidance just beyond the next 7 days suggests the potential for a more active pattern closer to Halloween into early November.
Discussion
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Expansive ridging aloft across the central and eastern CONUS will combine with sfc high pressure firmly entrenched across the Great Lakes and OH Valley to yield persistent warm and dry conditions through the middle of next week. As a result, temperatures will continue to run slightly above average with daily afternoon highs generally in the middle 80s through Saturday as the center of the ridge axis moves overhead. As the ridge axis gradually shifts to the east early next week, high temperatures are expected to ease slightly back down into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Meanwhile, dry air in place along with light winds and clear skies will continue to promote efficient radiational cooling each night with overnight lows dropping back into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Unfortunately, the dry air also comes with a price amidst our very prolonged drought with a continued fire danger as min RH values drop into the 20-30 percent range each afternoon.
Despite dry conditions prevailing into early next week, a pattern shift still appears to be on the horizon just beyond this 7-day period. Initially, an upper trough digging well out to our west this weekend will begin ejecting into the Rockies and Great Plains by Sunday into Monday. Due to the ridge in place across our region and into the SE CONUS, the trough will be deflected farther north well away from us so don't expect any rainfall in the near future. However, the trough will help to slowly dampen the ridge and erode it completely by the middle of next week. With this shift in the longwave pattern, notable weather changes appear likely in terms of increasing rain chances toward the end of the month with a more SW flow pattern aloft. Timing of this more active pattern arriving appears to closely coincide with Halloween into early November so welcome rainfall may finally be on the way, albeit at the expense of Halloween trick-or-treaters.
/19/
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
For the ArkLaTex terminals, surface high pressure over the NE U.S. continues to sprawl down the OH/MS River Valleys with E/NE winds prevailing at 3-7KT for us. Our climb winds remain light NE5-10KT and back to all N/NW flow by 12kft with 10KT increasing to 45KT by FL270. No pattern changes expected until late month with more Chamber of Commerce Fair WX through the coming weekend and much of next week too. Fropa near month's end ushers back convection. /24/
Spotter Information Statement
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Spotter activation may be needed through this week in the event of wildfire development.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
SHV 52 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 48 85 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 49 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 51 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 46 85 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 55 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 50 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 50 86 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
Shv Watches/Warnings/Advisories
AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.
DISCUSSION...19 AVIATION...24