Key messages
- Elevated fire danger concerns will persist through early next week due to very dry ground conditions and low humidity each day.
Discussion
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Forecast Remains on Track:
The forecast is very straight-forward through the next week, and confidence is therefore high in the forecast details. Global model ensembles agree that an anomalously warm upper level ridge will slowly shift eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley region as we finish up the week and go into next week. This will lead to a continuation of dry weather with large diurnal temperature ranges approaching 40 deg F.
Of greatest importance, the continued drying of vegetation combined with exceptionally low daytime RH values will help to maintain an elevated fire danger threat. We will continue to message this through the graphics and fire danger statement. Wind should have less influence and be a smaller factor in determining the fire danger threat levels.
Otherwise, rainfall is not expected until late next week at the earliest, when the ridge shows signs of breaking down. /EC/OAJ/
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through TAF period. /22/
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Jackson 51 84 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 46 80 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 49 85 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 47 84 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 52 85 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 50 83 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 48 84 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
Jan Watches/Warnings/Advisories
MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.
/22