Key Messages
Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Dry weather will continue through the middle of next week, as daytime highs prevail in the mid 70s to low 80s.
- Elevated fire danger will continue, as vegetation remains dry and afternoon relative humidity remains low.
Discussion
(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Early morning upper air analysis showed a highly-amplified omega blocking pattern over the lower 48 states, anchored by a closed low over California and longwave trough over the eastern seaboard. Between these features, an upper level ridge extended from northern Mexico, through much of the Great Plains and Midwest.
As expected with an Omega block, this pattern will be slow to evolve over the next several days. The California closed low will lift into the 4-corners region by this weekend, displacing the upper ridge to the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley. 500mb heights over the Midsouth will peak near 590dam Sunday afternoon. This will result in continued above normal high temperatures (5 degrees on average) and no chances of rainfall. About half of the Midsouth experienced a one class degradation in drought classification this week, with D3-D4 (extreme to exceptional) drought now encompassing most of eastern Arkansas and southern West Tennessee. The combination of dry vegetation and low daytime humidity will result in continued elevated wildland fire danger through the middle of next week. The persistent upper level ridge will at least result in light surface winds through the weekend, mitigating the tendency for wildfires to rapidly spread.
Beyond this weekend, the western U.S. upper low will deamplify as it lifts northeast to the central plains on Monday. By Tuesday, this feature will incorporate into faster westerly flow over the upper Midwest. Any midlevel height reduction over the Midsouth will likely be modest, with minimal change in surface temperatures, humidity and rainfall chances.
Medium range models point toward a return to a more progressive upper level pattern by late next week. At these extended periods, there are timing differences with systems coming onshore along the west coast. While it's too early to pin down when our next rain chance will be, the transition from a blocking pattern to a more typical progressive mid-autumn pattern does point toward more seasonal rainfall as we enter November.
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period as high pressure remains throughout the Mid-South with light east- northeasterly winds.
Fire Weather
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Little change is forecast through the weekend. Minimum relative humidity will prevail in the 20 to 30 percent range, as 10 hour fuel moisture ranges from 8 to 11 percent. 20 foot winds will remain generally light, averaging 5 mph or less during the afternoon. There remains no chances of wetting rainfall through the middle of next week.
Meg Watches/Warnings/Advisories
AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...JAB