Key messages
- Patchy fog is possible early this morning near bodies of water.
- Temperatures will remain seasonable, if not slightly above average, into early next week.
- No precipitation is expected through early next week.
Discussion
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
An omega block remains in place at 250 mb, albeit with a slightly degraded eastern upper-level low. The CWA remains on the eastern edge of this pattern nonetheless, and the ridge axis is set comfortably along a positive slope from Laredo, Texas, through to Lake Superior. Easterly progression of the ridge axis is expected to increase in speed by mid-day Saturday, though some disagreement in the evolution of the western-most trough exists between models. Currently, the 12z GFS indicates a Tuesday morning shortwave disturbance with a vort max over western Missouri. However, 06z ECMWF contains a strong zonal component and a significantly weaker shortwave centered on western Iowa. Ensemble modeling (GEFS) remains more in line with the ECMWF. Regardless of the troughs exact location, poor moisture return from the Gulf will strongly inhibit the potential for severe weather, yet alone precipitation. Some small precipitation chances may return to the forecast Tuesday but it is dry for now.
No notable changes to surface flow and conditions have occurred, and similar morning fog conditions will exist tomorrow morning around bodies of water. Any fog should erode with surface heating by 15z.
Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Friday/
Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
With the exception of the possibility of some shallow MVFR fog at CGI later tonight, VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Winds should go mainly calm overnight and then pick back up out of the east and northeast tomorrow at around 6 kts.
Pah Watches/Warnings/Advisories
IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...HICKFORD