Key Messages
Issued at 118 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
-Near-normal to above-normal temperatures will continue through at least this weekend for much of the state.
-No appreciable rainfall is expected through the forecast period with drought conditions persisting.
-Low afternoon relative humidity values and drying fuels may contribute to daily elevated fire danger concerns through at least Friday.
Discussion
Issued at 118 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
No significant changes to note w/ the new fcst update... Current WV sat imgry depicted Wrn US troughing, w/ ridging flow over the Cntrl CONUS. Objective sfc analysis indicated broad high pressure extending over much of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Mid-South, promoting settled weather for the region the past few days.
Thru the fcst PD, model consensus remains centered on aforementioned upper level ridging persisting across the central CONUS, keeping a persistence-style fcst in place, w/ daily high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s...typically above-normal for most locations...and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, and no appreciable rainfall expected.
Concerning drought and fire danger, a lack of forecast rainfall, and any recent substantial rainfall wl foster drying ground fuels (noted by fcst ERC values approaching >90th percentile over portions of Srn AR), and persisting to deteriorating drought conditions for much of the state. Additionally, very low afternoon RH values of 25 percent or less may contribute to daily elevated fire danger concerns through at least this weekend.
For the long term...Early next week, the aforementioned west coast trof wl slowly translate Ewrd over the Four Corners and Cont Divide by Mon, weakening as it does so. Locally, the center of the upper level high wl also shift Ewrd, positioning SWrly H500 flow acrs the Srn Great Plains. At most, this may drive some increasing low-level cloud cover over the FA thru the early portion of next week, and bring some slightly cooler temperatures, but unfortunately, no precip chances to mention.
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
SKC conditions will prevail through much of the period with L/V winds overnight becoming east to southeasterly around 5 to 7 kts by Fri afternoon.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Batesville AR 48 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 46 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 50 78 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 50 82 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 51 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 50 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 46 82 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 48 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 50 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 47 82 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 50 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 49 81 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 50 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
Lzk Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...69