Key messages
- Above normal temperatures into early next week. Highs in the middle 70s to around 80 and dry weather are expected.
Short Term /Through Tonight/
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Upper level ridging continues to build over the central CONUS, with satellite imagery depicting clear skies this morning/afternoon over the CWA. The above normal temperatures continue, with observations as of 130PM ranging in the mid to upper 70s. Some locations have realized peak heating, however others may climb a degree or two more, topping out in the upper 70s to even 80 in localized areas.
Despite the above normal temperatures and dry airmass leading to minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 25-40% range, light surface winds will keep any fire weather concerns at bay through at least the weekend.
For tonight, some high-level clouds may begin to filter in from the west associated with an upper level low over the west coast, however most locations will remain under clear skies, with overnight lows in the upper 40s (eastern Ozarks) to low/mid 50s.
Long Term /Friday Through Thursday/
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Heading into the end of the week and through the weekend, the upper level ridging pattern will continue building over the region, keeping mid-level heights raised, with 850mb temperatures between 13-16C. With a continued minimal difference (2-3 degrees) between the 25th and 75th percentiles, there's high confidence in afternoon highs remaining in the upper 70s to even the low 80s through Monday.
The aforementioned upper level low currently over the west coast looks to pivot northeast into the Northern Plains by Tuesday of next week. Models however are still in disagreement regarding the exact track, which would influence our rain chances. Right now, chances of rainfall midweek continues to decrease, with the likely scenario keeping our area dry through at least Wednesday afternoon. It's still fairly far out, so several variable still need to come into better agreement before our confidence increases in the precipitation forecast.
Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Friday/
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the entire 00Z TAF period. Calm winds will shift to a southeasterly direction at 5-10 kts by 12Z, with passing high clouds becoming a bit more frequent at that time.
Sgf Watches/Warnings/Advisories
KS...None. MO...None.
SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Price