Key messages
- Above seasonal average temperatures continue. General cool down expected starting next Tuesday.
- Next notable chance for rain comes Monday afternoon and evening primarily across far NW MO and NE KS (10-40 percent).
Discussion
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Ridging at upper levels with complimentary highs at 850mb and the surface keep the weather picture consistent for the next several days. Southerly flow at the surface continues to push warm air northward keeping temperatures above seasonal averages. NW flow aloft keeps those highs from getting to out of hand, but high temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 70s to near 80 for most.
The upper level high remains stout across the central CONUS even migrating a little northward over the next few days. This slows the movements of a trough to the east and sets up the axis of flow west of our region keeping passing storm systems to the west and north. It is not until Sunday before we expect some significant movement in the upper level pattern. A trough across mid latitudes of Canada indents the central CONUS high just enough to release the cut off low over the Rockies. This combined with another system moving on shore across the Pacific NW sets up the potential for expansive frontogenesis along a line from the northern Great Lakes through west Texas. As the Pacific NW low makes its way further inland it ushers the previous stationary low that over the Four Corners region eastward bringing with it chances for showers and storms Monday evening moreso early Tuesday morning. Probabilities for precipitation have been fairly low ranging from 10-40 percent extending from the I-35 corridor to points northwest. Models have been fairly conservative in propagating precipitation chances eastward. Even though multiple days of warm air advection would make one think that the atmosphere would be primed for convective activity, general subsidence from a low to midlevel high across the eastern seaboard expanding westward yields a fairly stable environment ahead of the low's passing. The question would be if the front is able to kinematically force ascent to develop showers and storms. Pockets of ascent are likely as upper level CVA compliments the low level kinematics of the cold front; however, there remains uncertainty how far south and east that environment propagates. If rain is able to develop and expand, PWAT vales around an inch present opportunities for isolated heavy downpours, but not as intense or expansive as we saw about a month ago.
Looking at the extended, these previously mentioned waves open up the pattern fairly significantly. The general delineation between the warmer air across the southern CONUS and cooler air across the north shifts southward opening up avenues for cooler Canadian air to beginning working its way into the region. This turns highs back down toward seasonal averages, yet still above, around 65-70 degrees (average = 62). It also adds a bit more turbulence to the pattern opening up chances for additional showers and storms late next week particularly next Saturday; although, at this time scale there is a lot that can change between now and then.
Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Saturday/
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions continuing with increasing southerly winds after 15Z Friday.
Eax Watches/Warnings/Advisories
MO...None. KS...None.
DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...BT