Key messages
- Seasonably warm and dry through Saturday.
- Rain chances increase late Sunday into Monday, mainly west of the Flint Hills.
Discussion
Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
A mid/upper ridge continues to build over the central Plains while a vigorous trough is digging into the southwestern CONUS, centered near southern California. At the surface, a broad lee trough extends from the High Plains into eastern Colorado, maintaining a southerly low- level jet and warm advection into Kansas. This pattern supports continued seasonably warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions through Saturday.
Across the area, skies will remain mostly clear to partly cloudy today, with increasing mid and high clouds tonight into Friday as moisture and upper-level cloud shields spread eastward ahead of the western trough. Afternoon highs today and Friday are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s, with some locations in central and western Kansas climbing into the low 80s, well below record values but several degrees above late October normals.
As the lee trough deepens Friday, the surface pressure gradient will tighten, especially over central and western Kansas. This will yield sustained southerly winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts into the mid-20s to perhaps near 30 mph west of the Flint Hills, while southeast counties (ChanuteParsonsCoffeyville corridor) see somewhat lighter but still noticeable south winds. These breezy conditions will persist into Saturday, supporting good mixing and limiting overnight cooling, with lows mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
The more consequential period begins late Sunday into Monday as the stubborn southwestern CONUS trough finally ejects east- northeast toward the central Plains. As height falls spread into Kansas, large-scale ascent, deepening moisture, and strengthening low-level convergence along and ahead of the attendant surface front will support increasing shower and embedded thunderstorm coverage.
Ensembles favor higher precipitation chances over central and western portions of the area (e.g., Hutchinson, Great Bend, Salina corridors) with lower but non-zero chances extending into the Wichita metro and southeast Kansas. Timing remains somewhat uncertain, but trends support showers developing late Sunday afternoon or evening in western zones, spreading east Sunday night and persisting at least into Monday.
Rainfall amounts are generally favored to be light as the pattern suggests scattered to numerous showers with locally moderate rainfall rates rather than a widespread heavy rain event. The greatest risk for more appreciable totals would be over western and north central Kansas where forcing and moisture overlap longest.
Behind the front and main wave, cooler air filters into Kansas Monday and Tuesday.
Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Saturday/
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Quiet VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity this evening over portions of western and northwest Kansas should remain west-northwest of RSL and GBD. Deep High Plains low pressure will support continued breezy south winds Friday, with gusts up to around 25-30 kts, strongest for RSL and GBD.
Ict Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
DISCUSSION...TOP AVIATION...ADK