Key messages
- Dry with above-normal temperatures through the weekend.
- Next chance of rain comes Sunday night into Monday with highest chances (30-50%) across central Kansas.
- Temperatures trend closer to climatological norms for the middle of next week.
Discussion
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Little change in the synoptic pattern has occurred over the past 24 hours with mid-level ridging in place over the Plains and a closed low slowly moving east into the southwest CONUS. Warm and dry conditions remain the rule across the forecast area with mostly sunny skies and highs near 80 degrees this afternoon. Low-level southerly flow increases tonight into Friday as a surface low deepens on the lee of the Rockies. Good mixing and south winds gusting at 20-30 MPH will be offset to some degree by passing mid and high clouds, with the net result being another day of highs around 80 degrees.
Guidance continues to slow the progression of the western trough, as now the northern stream wave is progged to remain farther north which slows the southern stream trough and surface cold front. In addition, more ensemble members are lifting the southern stream energy farther north, keeping the cold front north of the forecast area and highs above-normal through at least Monday. Confidence has decreased in precipitation chances especially with eastern extent given the slower and more northerly track of the system. Central Kansas has the highest chances (30-50%) at seeing some rain/storms Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Still expect some cooler air to filter in behind the system, but exactly how cool remains uncertain. Large spreads persist (15 degrees between NBM 25th-75th percentiles) in potential high temperatures Tuesday into the middle of next week, but should be closer to climatological norms behind the system.
Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Friday/
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions continue through the period. A light breeze should remain in place overnight with a partially decoupled BL in place. Fog chances lower overnight as a result and would be limited to KTOP if any at all. Southerly winds increase in the morning as the low level winds and pressure gradient increase in advance of the western CONUS trough.
Top Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Drake