Key messages
- Afternoon highs today and tomorrow reaching the upper 70s/low 80s amidst gusty southerly winds.
- Widespread precipitation Saturday through Monday with 0.5-2" of rainfall possible with a slight risk via the excessive rainfall outlook in the western counties.
- A calm and cooler week next week with highs regularly in the 60s.
Discussion
Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
The synoptic pattern aloft over the forecast area is headlined by a steep ridge situated over the central CONUS. The ridge is flanked on either side by troughs over the coasts including a strong and deepening low pressure system just off of the West Coast. The high pressure extends all the way to the surface over the CWA and calm, quiet weather is expected to persist as a result. There is a subtle pocket of low pressure over Colorado initiating some weak convection, but it is not forecast to reach into Kansas. Thursday and Friday are forecast to continue the pattern of dry weather and highs in the upper 70s into the 80s. Outside of the serene temperatures, winds will be breezy out of the south at 15-25 mph.
Saturday will see similar temperatures, but the system mentioned over the West Coast will have moved eastward towards the area. With southern advection of tropical moisture, heavy rainfall is possible through the event. From late Saturday to early Monday, chances for rain in the western counties stay at 30% or higher via ensembles. The heaviest rainfall is expected to stay west of Highway 83 and into Colorado. Rainfall is forecast for the entire CWA through the event, however. The current expectation is that there will be a minimal to none severe threat. Event total QPF is up to around 2- 2.25" in of rain. A limited amount of CAPE is forecast and will limit the intensity of the convection. That said the 2 inches of rain is expected to be drawn out along the 24-48 hour event which should limit most of the widespread potential. This is primarily based off the current solution that the models have trended towards being slower and later as a system. This keep most of the training of the rainfall in Colorado and along the border. If this continues and is realized, most of the flooding risk will be outside of the CWA. That said if the outcome shifts 50 miles eastward, there may be widespread flooding west of highway 83. Otherwise the flooding will likely only come in the form of localized flash flooding in urban and flood prone areas. Being the forecast focus, it will need to be monitored in the coming days as temporal uncertainty decreases.
Behind the event, cooler more seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the 60s. Outside of lingering showers on Tuesday, no active weather is forecast through the rest of the forecast period.
Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Friday/
Issued at 502 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
High Clouds will increase overnight as a moist southwest flow improves across southwest Kansas. The gusty south winds will decrease some, but not much, overnight as the surface trough of low pressure at the surface along the lee of the Rockies deepens. 30 to 40 knot winds near 2000ft AGL will develop overnight across southwest Kansas overnight but these increasing winds will be just below wind shear criteria so will not include mention of wind shear in the 00z TAFS. Gusty south winds of 20 to 25 knots will develop by 18z Friday as these stronger boundary layer winds mix down to the surface.
Ddc Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...Burgert