Key Messages
Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Cooler temperatures and potentially heavy moisture is expected this weekend. Monitoring for a potential flood threat as well. (At least a 15% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point)
Short Term
(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Another mild warm day today with increasing cloud cover as a storm system off the CA coast starts to work it's way east. Overall, highs in the 70s to lower 80s will continue today, but we will have some increased cross barrier flow and that will help set up a lee surface low in SE Colorado. As a result some tightening surface gradients will lead to south winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 20 to 30 mph. As the ridge remains in place over the next 24 to 36 hours awaiting the closer approach of the next weather system, this tight gradient should stay in place that will keep winds up tonight and with normal lows in the mid to lower 40s, we expect them to be more in the mid to upper 50s. With Dalhart's record highest minimum temperatures around 56 degrees, the forecast of 54 is close to touching that record. So very mild overnight October temperatures. As far as the highs on Friday, we again expect temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. It will still be a bit breezy and with more cloud cover may feel a bit cooler, but still a mild day. Friday night the chances of showers and maybe a storm pick up, but right along the state line in the northwest Panhandles.
Weber
Long Term
(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
With the moisture plume just to the west of the Panhandles as we head into Saturday, it will hold pretty steady along and just east of the state line providing a medium chance 30-50% of showers and maybe an isolated storm to the Adrian, Dalhart, Boise City line. East of that line the chances drop off pretty sharply so much that Amarillo is less than 10 percent. Now for areas that will see rain/storms, it could get several rounds and the possibility of storms to produce ample rain amount that could lead to some localized flooding conditions. Right now the confidence is very low for Saturday. As we head into Sunday that southerly flow starts to break down into a more southwesterly flow and moisture starts to move across the Panhandles so much that the central Panhandles will have a high chance >70 percent of showers/storms and there may be a little bit of a convective component Sunday afternoon to these rain showers that could enhance rain amounts. Overall, NBM model still holds about a medium to high chance of 1" of rain for the western and central Panhandles for Sunday. As we move into Monday and Tuesday the moisture will continue to track further east, and eventually more south, this is where the eastern Panhandles will have a better shot a rain chances. Although there is some question as to how much residual moisture will linger to the eastern Panhandles, the probabilities are fairly high (60-80%) for at least a quarter of an inch from Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Monday night into Tuesday will have the cold front move through the Panhandles and the precipitation chances will drop off. The front will be fairly mild as highs on Tuesday are still expected to be in the 60s across most of the area, so not too strong. Wednesday we'll return to more southwesterly flow and warmer air will be in place, with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s, maybe even low 70s in the warm spots.
Weber
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail with breezy southerly winds around 15 kts. Gusts are expected to pick up during the latter part of the period to around 30 to 35 kts.
Ama Watches/Warnings/Advisories
TX...None. OK...None.
SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...03