Key messages
- No precipitation is expected through late next week.
- Temperatures will fall into the 50s each night and warm into the
Key Messages
low to mid 80s each afternoon.
- Wildfire risk will remain elevated through early next week in response to ongoing drought conditions and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 20-35% each day.
Discussion
(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
As far as unchanging forecasts go, this one could be a whole lot worse. A gradient aloft between ridging centered over northern Mexico and subtropical storm Josephine off the New England coast will continue to advect very dry air through the region today and Friday keeping skies mostly clear. This ridge will gradually slide northeast becoming centered directly overhead this weekend through the middle of next week. At the surface, broad high pressure extending across much of the eastern CONUS will maintain light northeasterly to easterly winds.
While afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 80s each day amidst abundant sunshine, the clear skies and light winds will support good radiational cooling each night dropping lows into the 50s each night.
The combination of worsening drought across the region and afternoon relative humidities dropping into the 20-35% range will continue to elevate the wildfire risk across the region through the weekend.
The latest iteration of the Drought Monitor has expanded the "Extreme Drought" designation across much of Calcasieu, Beauregard, Vernon, Rapides Jeff Davis and Allen parishes in southwest and central Louisiana. Much of the rest of the region remains in an "Severe Drought" category. With no rain expected over the next seven days, anticipate some of these areas being elevated to "Exceptional Drought" next week, the highest category of drought.
Jones
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Light and variable winds mainly out of the east along with clear skies will prevail through the period as high pressure maintains control.
Marine
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Light winds and low seas will prevail today and Friday. Easterly to southeasterly winds will increase Saturday into early next week as weak surface disturbance moves from east to west along the northern gulf coast. Seas will climb to 2-4 feet across the nearshore waters and from 4-9 feet from 20 to 60 miles offshore. No precipitation is expected with this disturbance. Winds and seas will relax beginning Tuesday.
Fire Weather
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
The combination of worsening drought across the region and afternoon relative humidities dropping into the 20-35% range will continue to elevate the wildfire risk across the region through the weekend. Winds will remain light out of the ENE. No precipitation is expected over the next seven days.
Lch Watches/Warnings/Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...17