Key Messages
Updated at 838 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Windy conditions are expected this weekend, following passage of a dry back door front late Friday. Northeast wind gusts will peak in the 25-35 mph range, possibly higher, during the day on Sunday.
- Hazardous marine conditions are expected from Friday evening through Monday due to strong and near-gale northeast winds. The windiest conditions will be on Saturday night and Sunday morning, when frequent gusts around gale-force are expected.
Update
Issued at 838 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
The forecast is on track.
Short Term
(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
A dry and stable air mass will persist through Friday. Cloudless skies are observed and will continue. As in recent nights, temperatures tonight will again cool off well down into the 40s for most folks, except warmer near the coast.
Long Term
(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
The main concern in the Long Term will be windy conditions this weekend.
Through Monday, a high-amplitude 500 mb ridge axis will reside near the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, putting us in straight, dry northerly flow aloft downstream of the ridge. A high-amplitude downstream trough axis will move little just off the U.S. East Coast, with a notable lobe... almost a cutoff... near the Bahamas.
At the surface, a 1035 mb high will arrive over the U.S. Mid- Atlantic region on Friday night. The southern periphery will wedge and bridge southwestward down the Atlantic Coastal Plain, arriving over our region late Friday. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient along its southern periphery will tighten even further as an anomalously low-latitude non-tropical 1010 mb trough carves out from the Northwest Caribbean across Cuba and the Bahamas. That means there will be a 25 mb pressure gradient between Chesapeake Bay and the Bahamas, with the tightest portion of the gradient focused near our latitude.
Winds will initially pick up over our region late Friday and increase further on Saturday. On Saturday night, deterministic guidance such as the 12z NAM and GFS show an easterly low-level jet developing across North Florida and South Georgia, with 925 mb winds forecast in the 40-45 knot range. A few hours after sunrise Sunday when we thermally mix high enough, the strong flow aloft will mix to the surface in gusts. We currently have gusts of 25-35 mph in the official forecast, strongest over South GA and the FL Big Bend. However, consideration of the low-level jet means peak gusts around 40+ mph are in the realm of possibility. Gusts of 40+ mph would necessitate a Wind Advisory.
The surface high to the northeast will start to weaken on Sunday night, which will start to slowly loosen the pressure gradient on Monday and Tuesday, despite continuation of low pressure to the southeast.
Once our flow increases on Friday night, the low-level air mass will become moister thanks to greater Atlantic maritime influence. At the least, this will mean a return of fair weather cumulus or stratocumulus from Saturday on. Mechanical mixing in fast flow is known for producing a well-mixed and somewhat deep boundary layer. With the added moisture, this could favor a few weak, low- topped showers moving west of the Suwannee River and possibly out across Apalachee Bay. The forecast is currently rain-free, but we may eventually need to add low-chance PoPs southeast of an Apalachicola-to-Valdosta line on just about any day from Saturday on.
Next Wednesday and Thursday, the next pattern transition will begin. The high-amplitude 500 mb pattern will break down, and we will start to get westerly flow aloft across the region. Low-level flow will slowly clock around from northeast to a milder and somewhat moister easterly direction. Most guidance is still dry through next Thursday, but the deterministic 12z ECMWF shows potential for rain as westerly flow aloft starts to overrun easterly flow at the surface.
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with clear skies. Mainly light winds will prevail through tonight, then northeast winds will increase to around 10 knots during the day on Friday.
Marine
Issued at 322 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Gentle to moderate north-northeast breezes will continue through Friday morning. A back door front will push across the waters late Friday, followed by freshening breezes on Friday night. The pressure gradients will tighten and winds will increase further this weekend as low pressure develops over the Bahamas and high pressure strengthens to the northeast. The strongest winds will come on Saturday night and Sunday morning, when frequent gusts near gale-force are expected. Winds will slowly start to decrease on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure to the north weakens.
Fire Weather
Issued at 322 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
A dry and stable air mass will persist through Friday. Late Friday, a back-door front will move across the districts, followed by breezy and windy conditions this weekend. Northeast winds will peak around midday Sunday, when gusts of 25-35 mph are expected, with a few higher gusts possible. The increase in wind will be somewhat offset by an increase in humidity, as well scattered fair weather cumulus starting Saturday. Otherwise, no rain is expected through Thursday of next week. Then the 8-14 day outlook for October 29 to November 4 shows odds favoring above normal rainfall.
Hydrology
Issued at 322 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.
Spotter Information Statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Tallahassee 50 79 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 54 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 50 78 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 49 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 48 77 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 47 79 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 57 77 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
SHORT TERM...Haner LONG TERM....Haner AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Haner