Tampa Bay forecast discussion

Update

Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Evening forecast remains on track with no updates planned. Highly amplified CONUS pattern continues, with strong C U.S. ridging and a deep E Seaboard L/W trough extending south over the state, while surface high pressure centered to the north coupled with a remnant frontal boundary over the FL Straits continues cooler, drier and occasionally breezy conditions locally. Evening WV satellite imagery shows a few S/W disturbances spanning from the Mid-Atlantic to the N Gulf digging into the base of the L/W trough, eventually inducing the formation of an U/L cut-off low this weekend over the state and W Atlantic. Drier air is also apparent, particularly in the low and mid levels, with regional ACARS soundings and the 00Z KTBW sounding along with surface obs and meso-analysis also indicating 24-hr dew point decreases of up to 10-15 degrees across most of the CWA, and PWATs down to below an inch for most of the CWA, with northern and most central areas down to between 0.5-0.75 inches. Conditions remain dry and generally cloud-free area wide this evening, with the exception of southern locations across parts of Charlotte and Lee counties where slightly deeper moisture and some areas of cloudiness remain. NE winds have decreased to 5-10 mph and should remain similar through tonight into Friday morning before increasing late morning into afternoon. Another dry and breezy day expected under a few afternoon clouds with area PoPs remaining below 10%, with morning lows from the lower 50s north to lower 60s south, and afternoon highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Discussion

Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Mid/upper-level troughing will continue across the eastern part of the country and Florida with ridging to our west while surface high pressure remains parked to our north and a remnant frontal boundary lingers south of the state. This setup has kept northeast winds in place with cooler and drier conditions across the local area.

Over the next few days, a cutoff low will form over the southeastern Gulf before opening up and lifting northeast as ridging builds back in. At the surface, the pressure gradient will tighten between high pressure to our north and the boundary to the south, leading to increasing northeast winds once again for the weekend and into next week. Overall, mostly dry conditions will continue except for a few showers over the interior and southwest Florida mainly this weekend with the stronger winds and temperatures will remain steady near normals.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Dry VFR expected through the period with generally NE flow continuing across area terminals, occasionally gusty.

Marine

Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Northeast winds will continue over the waters for the next week. Wind speeds around exercise caution levels today and tomorrow will increase to advisory criteria starting tomorrow night, with some gusts to gale force expected, and remain elevated into next week.

Fire Weather

Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next few days as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops

TPA  62  81  63  83 /   0   0   0   0 
FMY  63  84  63  85 /   0  10   0  10 
GIF  60  82  62  83 /   0   0   0   0 
SRQ  60  81  62  82 /   0   0   0   0 
BKV  52  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0 
SPG  67  80  68  82 /   0   0   0   0 

Tbw Watches/Warnings/Advisories

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn