Key Messages
Updated at 722 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Moderate coastal flooding is expected with each high tide cycle. Major coastal flooding is possible late this weekend into early next week.
- Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is possible across the east coast metros Sunday through Monday.
- Strong winds, with gusts over 35 mph are possible Sunday through Monday.
- Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected through early next week.
Synopsis
Issued at 408 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Upper level observations and water vapor imagery reveal an amplified CONUS wave pattern with a longwave trough over the eastern third of the country, a ridge across the central CONUS, and a trough over the west coast. Vapor imagery shows quite a few shortwaves across the eastern U.S., the Gulf, and the western Atlantic all embedded in the eastern CONUS longwave trough. At the surface, an expansive ridge covers much of the central and eastern CONUS, with sub-tropical storm Josephine sitting off the coast of the Northeast. A local surface analysis depicts inverted troughing along the SC/GA/FL coastline, as well as off the western FL coast. These features are likely due to the thermal gradients between the Gulf Stream and adjacent waters/land across the Atlantic coast, and the anomalously warm eastern Gulf waters across the west coast of FL. WV imagery, satellite derived PWATs, and observed soundings all indicate quite a bit of deep-layer dry air across the southeast under the mostly continental flow regime beneath the ridge/trough interface. However, there is a notable increase in low-level moisture from roughly Cape Canaveral southward through South Florida where flow starts to veer around the base of the ridge. Weak, but moist, isentropic ascent resulted in low cloudiness spreading across south Florida last night and has yet to scatter much. Cyclonic curvature is noted from the Palm Beach coast through Miami-Dade, associated with the weak inverted trough. This is resulting in an enhanced area of convergence just offshore, and is responsible for the scattered showers that have developed, but mostly dissipate as they try to move inland. While the showers are mostly confined to the coastal waters, cloudiness associated with them is still advecting westward through south Florida.
Short Term
(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 408 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
A band of high PV aloft stretching from the eastern Gulf through Florida, and up the Eastern Seaboard, will advect northeast along with the subtropical storm. Another shortwave, that stretches from the Mid-Atlantic through the Southeast this afternoon, will drop into the SW Atlantic, FL, and the eastern Gulf tomorrow. Locally, this won't have much of an effect on the sensible weather as the low to mid tropospheric dry and stable airmass will prevent much (if any) of a surface response. Instead, a continued pattern similar to what was discussed above for today will continue. Expect scattered to broken cloud cover, with on and off showers along the east coast.
Long Term
(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 408 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
This is where ensemble members start to struggle with agreeing on the evolution of the upper-level pattern. We'll focus mostly on how it relates to the south Florida region for this discussion. A third shortwave is expected to dive out of the Great Lakes region and Northeast through Saturday, while the aforementioned second shortwave meanders across southern FL and the SW Atlantic. Global ensembles are uncertain as to whether this southernmost shortwave will cutoff from the mean northern stream trough, or remain an open wave that stays connected with the latter shortwave and northern stream. The implications of this seem to be (1) how low of a latitude does this upper low reach (2) is there a pathway for any resultant surface feature to draw nearer to the east coast of FL. The further south the trough reaches, the further south the heavy rain potential may reach (considering also the next point). If the trough cuts off fully (or even somewhat) it may open a pathway for any surface reflection that develops to get pulled back westward before eventually getting pushed into the Atlantic as the longwave trough progresses east.
As far as the anticipated rain amounts are concerned, the best utility we have at this moment to assess potential impacts is the WPC QPF clustering tool. For several days guidance has been clustered into a higher QPF and lower QPF scenario that's likely related to how far west any surface feature may be able to reach. Further, the higher QPF solution has a north/south scenario that's likely tied to how far south the southern extent of the longwave trough reaches. Unfortunately ensemble members are pretty evenly split between the higher/lower QPF scenario, and also split within the higher QPF scenario as to where the heaviest rain may fall. Here's what we can say: * Over the 48 hour period from Sunday through Monday the east coast metros are expected to be wet, with at least widespread 1-2" of rain. This could also mean localized higher amounts nearly double those values. * There's a medium (50%) chance that the widespread average amounts could be closer to 3-5", with an isolated location or two potentially receiving 7-9". * If the heavy rain scenario pans out it's too early to tell exactly where these amount may fall. It could be anywhere from Cape Canaveral to Homestead.
Another threat to consider is the potential for strong and gusty winds Sunday and Monday. There's a medium chance (40-60%) that along the east coast metros sustained winds could reach 25 mph with gusts around 35 mph. This could result in scattered downed limbs and fronds and displacement of unsecured light-weight items.
While the potential for heavy rain and strong winds may subside a bit past Monday, we're still unlikely to dry out completely through next week as we remain under the influence of solid easterly flow. This would result period of scattered showers moving inland from the Atlantic waters each day.
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. NNE winds this evening will become NNW across the east coast terminals during the overnight hours. These winds will then shift back to the NE after 15z Friday and will range between 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kts will be possible across the east coast terminals in the afternoon. Scattered showers will remain possible across the east coast overnight and throughout the day on Friday.
Marine
Issued at 408 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected to continue through the early weekend. Then, dangerous marine conditions are expected across the Atlantic and Gulf waters as strong easterly winds become established. Solid Advisory conditions are anticipated, with Gale force gusts possible across the Atlantic waters. Seas are currently forecast to peak around 6-9 feet in the Gulf and 10-14 feet across the Atlantic waters Sunday night into Monday. Heavy rain is also expected; primarily across Atlantic waters Sunday through Monday.
Beaches
Issued at 408 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
The high rip current risk will continue for the foreseeable future along the Atlantic coast. The threat for breakers over 6 feet may briefly subside on Saturday, but is expected to return by Sunday as strong onshore flow becomes established once again. See the hydrology section below for a discussion on the upcoming King Tide cycle as well. Bottom line, it's a dangerous time to enter the water (especially along the Atlantic coast), and it's expected to be worst late this weekend into early next week.
Hydrology
Issued at 408 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Tied with, if not edging out, the expected impacts from heavy rain is the threat for moderate or higher coastal flooding as we draw closer to the peak of this King Tide cycle. Not only will we reach the peak of the cycle Sunday into Monday, but it is also expected to be the peak King Tide of the season as well. Unfortunately this peak also comes at the time of greatest onshore winds and heavy rain potential. Both of these factors are expected to increase the impacts of the saltwater flooding, either from impeding drainage of heavy rain or adding a surge component to the peak tides. It is within the ensemble envelope that Major category flooding will occur along the immediate coast, and even if the gauges don't quite reach Major level, it's possible the impacts would be the same if freshwater flooding is adding to the saltwater flooding. All sensitive locations down the east coast should be preparing for the highest tidal impacts of the season.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Miami 71 84 72 83 / 20 40 40 50 West Kendall 70 85 71 84 / 10 40 40 40 Opa-Locka 71 84 72 84 / 20 40 40 50 Homestead 70 84 71 84 / 20 40 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 71 82 72 82 / 30 50 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 71 83 72 83 / 30 50 50 50 Pembroke Pines 70 84 71 84 / 20 40 40 50 West Palm Beach 71 83 72 83 / 20 50 40 50 Boca Raton 71 82 72 82 / 30 50 50 60 Naples 65 84 67 85 / 0 10 0 10
Mfl Watches/Warnings/Advisories
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168-172- 173.
High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.
High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.
GM...None.
SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM....Harrigan AVIATION...CWC