Key messages
- 1) Dry and tranquil weather will continue through this weekend.
What Has Changed
No major changes with this forecast update.
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and tranquil weather will continue through this weekend.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across our region through the weekend. A moisture-starved cold front will continue to move south and away from the area this evening. Behind the front, an incoming cooler air mass will bring some increase in lake-induced instability, with low level north to northeast flow producing a brief period of lake effect and upslope clouds tonight. These clouds will already have scattered out before daybreak Friday.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to build to the east and settle over the Northeast Friday and this weekend. Dry weather and clear to partly cloudy sky are expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Daily highs should moderate from mainly the 50s to 60F Friday to the mid 50s to upper 60s on Sunday as a more southerly flow develops on the western side of the ridge.
The environment should remain favorable for localized and shallow fog in the Black River Valley, Western Southern Tier river valleys, and the lake valleys of the Finger Lakes Region between about midnight and 9 AM EDT Saturday through Sunday.
Aviation /22Z Thursday Through Tuesday/
A moisture starved cold front will continue to move south and away from the area this evening. A somewhat cooler airmass will support a brief window of weak lake induced instability, with north to northeast low level flow bringing a period of lake effect and upslope clouds tonight. Most areas will stay VFR, with any MVFR CIGS limited to the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The clouds will scatter out before daybreak Friday, leaving VFR to prevail for the rest of the day.
Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR are expected. However, localized steam fog with MVFR to LIFR should impact the Black River Valley, Western Southern Tier river valleys, and lake valleys of the Finger Lakes Region each late night and morning.
Marine
A cold front will continue to move south and away from the area tonight. A brief period of moderate northeasterlies behind the front will bring very choppy conditions to both lakes overnight through Friday morning, but winds and waves will generally stay just below Small Craft Advisory criteria most of the time. The northeast winds will gradually diminish Friday afternoon, but a moderate chop will continue on both lakes.
NE/E winds at 15 knots or less Friday will gradually turn southwest over the weekend, as the ridge continues to affect the eastern Great Lakes and the embedded high pressure center drops south to the Atlantic waters near Long Island. Southwest winds Monday will veer to northerly as a cold front drops through the eastern Great Lakes and is followed by a ridge building from central Canada.
Buf Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NY...None. MARINE...None.
DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/TMA AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA