Key messages
- 1) Dry weather continues into the end of October.
What Has Changed
* Freeze Watch issued for Friday night for Lancaster and Lebanon Counties.
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather continues into the end of October.
A dry cold frontal passage this evening into tonight will barely be noticeable other than an increase in cloud cover along and behind the front. High pressure builds into the region again behind the front for tomorrow as a pronounced ridge develops over the eastern US. This will keep dry conditions around through at least the beginning of next week with seasonably warm days and chilly nights.
HREF probs of temperatures falling below freezing Friday night are around 50 percent for Lancaster and Lebanon Counties (the only zones where the growing season remains active). This is supported by the NAM MOS guidance which shows temperatures right around 32 in both of those counties. This information, combined with the very favorable set up for efficient radiational cooling, has given us enough confidence to issue a Freeze Watch for Friday night/Saturday morning.
Aviation /00Z Friday Through Tuesday/
Mainly VFR conditions due to high pressure and dry weather will continue for the remainder of this week and into this weekend. Outside of brief periods of valley fog and a thin low stratus deck tonight, there are very low probabilities of reductions to flight categories through Tuesday.
Through the overnight hours, a SCT-BKN thin deck of post- frontal stratus will overspread over the northern half of central Pennsylvania, with few to no clouds expected south of the central Mountains and I-80. The Northern Tier (KBFD) is moderately likely (40-50% chance) to see periods of MVFR ceilings through the night, mainly towards the early hours of Friday morning. Lower chances for MVFR are present (mainly less than 20%) across the central mountains (KUNV/KIPT). These clouds will likely scatter out quickly after sunrise, and VFR will be the dominant flight conditions for Friday.
Sat-Tue...VFR prevailing conditions.
Ctp Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for PAZ059-066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Bauco DISCUSSION...Bauco AVIATION...Bowen