Key messages
- 1. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine located well off the Mid-
What Has Changed
Expired the Small Craft Advisory on the lower Delaware Bay and updated the Aviation Section for the 00Z TAFs. Also, updated wording to reflect what is now Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine.
Key Messages
Atlantic coast will continue to move off to the northeast through the end of the week, with coastal impacts and hazardous marine conditions gradually dwindling.
2. Elevated tide cycles persist due to Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine well of the coast resulting in widespread minor coastal flooding continuing in Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE.
3. Frost and freeze impacts possible Friday night and Saturday night where the growing season continues.
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1...Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine located well off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to move off to the northeast through the end of the week, with coastal impacts and hazardous marine conditions gradually dwindling.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine located well off the Mid- Atlantic coast will continue to move off to the northeast through the end of the week. Impacts will continue to dwindle for our coastal and marine areas. The multi-day north-northeast wind has resulted in elevated seas that will continue to lessen through the end of the week and into the weekend. These big waves breaking onto the beaches will result in some additional beach erosion, especially during the times of high tide. This will continue to lessen each day through the weekend.
An incoming system from the northwest will push across the region tonight, but no precipitation and minimal cloud cover is expected with it. Its main function is to move Josephine away. This is what will help further reduce the marine and coastal impacts, while providing a fresh shot of chilly air. A lingering tight pressure gradient into tonight starts to lessen Friday morning as high pressure builds into the region.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated tide cycles persist due to Post- Tropical Cyclone Josephine well of the coast resulting in widespread minor coastal flooding continuing in Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE.
As Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine lingers well off the coast elevated tide cycles are persisting some areas.
In Ocean County, New Jersey and Sussex County, Delaware, water levels remain elevated and minor tidal flooding is continuing, particularly in the back bays. In fact a few locations in the back bays came very close to or even touched moderate levels of coastal flooding earlier today with the high tide. It's going to take some time for water levels to diminish in these areas so we've extended the Coastal Flood Advisory for these counties through Friday evening. Elsewhere along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay any additional coastal flooding looks to be spotty at most.
At this time we are not forecasting any coastal flooding for the Maryland eastern shore.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Frost and freeze impacts possible Friday night and Saturday night where the growing season continues.
As an upper-level trough pivots across the Northeast tomorrow, a potentially strong mid-level ridge in the Plains to Midwest shifts eastward some into the weekend. This will support strong surface high pressure initially centered near the Great Lakes and portions of eastern Canada, which then shifts eastward into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic tomorrow and over the weekend.
A chilly and dry air mass will accompany this strong surface high, and as the high itself settles more overhead, the winds will decouple. This will set the stage for efficient radiational cooling both Friday night and Saturday night. The forecast lows are in the 30s for much of the area (away from the coasts and outside of the urban centers) with a frost and freeze potential. Due to the continued forecast trends, a Freeze Watch was issued for locations NW of the I-95 corridor where the growing season remains active. This is for Friday night as temperatures in these areas are at or near freezing. Frost Advisories may be needed outside of these areas for Friday night, especially if the radiational cooling ends up being stronger.
Aviation /00Z Friday Through Tuesday/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...VFR/SKC. A few clouds possible. Northwest winds around 5-10 kt early, will settle out of the north-northeast overnight. High confidence.
Friday...VFR/SKC. A few high clouds late. Northeast winds around 7-12 kt will become more easterly late in the day. A few gusts up to 15-20 kt possible near ACY. High confidence.
Outlook...
Friday night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather expected.
Marine
The Small Craft Advisory for the lower Delaware Bay will be allowed to expire at 8 PM.
A Small Craft Advisory continues for the New Jersey and Delaware nearshore waters as Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine gradually moves farther out to sea through the end of the week. A tightened pressure gradient will remain in place however due to strong high pressure to our north. Seas of 5-10 feet on the ocean. The winds and seas are forecast to diminish through Friday, though seas are currently forecast to remain elevated above 5 feet through much of Friday night.
Outlook...
Saturday...Winds are forecast to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria, however seas around 5 feet may linger for a while longer especially for our southern Atlantic coastal waters.
Sunday through Monday...The conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Tuesday...SCA conditions possible with seas around 5 feet.
Phi Watches/Warnings/Advisories
PA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for PAZ060-061-101-103-105. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for NJZ020-026. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NJZ008>010. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for DEZ003-004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ451>455.
DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Guzzo/RCM AVIATION...DeSilva/Gorse/Guzzo/RCM MARINE...DeSilva/Gorse/Guzzo/RCM