Key messages
- 1) High confidence in dry conditions persisting through at least
What Has Changed
Lowered dewpoints/RH values the rest of the afternoon based on observations, due to the mixing with the north/northwest winds due to the sfc pressure gradient between the weak sfc cold front and Subtropical Storm Josephine.
Min temps were lowered Fri and Sat nights blending in colder MAV/MET guidance with NBM. Also lowered dewpoints below NBM Fri/Sat with sfc high building in overhead.
Key Messages
the middle of next week.
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak cold front continues to approach from western and northern NY with some clouds over the North Country and Adirondacks this afternoon. A sfc pressure gradient between the cold front and the mid-level short-wave to the west/northwest and Subtropical Storm Josephine moving northeast into the Atlantic has allowed for north/northwest winds 5-15 mph with some gusts 20-25 mph especially south and east of the Capital Region. The winds will gradually diminish tonight, as the sfc cold front washes out. Light north/northwest winds may persist after midnight from the Capital Region south and east, as the sfc high builds in from southeast Ontario and southern Quebec. With the weak low-level cold advection lows fall back into the 30s with some upper 20s over the higher terrain.
A strong sfc anticyclone builds in over eastern NY and western New England tomorrow, and lasts through the weekend. The strong subsidence from the ridge will yield mostly sunny conditions. PWATs will run 1-2 STDEVs below normal in the dry air mass. Shallow mixing heights and weak cold advection will yield slightly below normal temps with highs in the upper 40s to mid and spotty upper 50s for Fri. The sfc high over southern Quebec, NY and New England will yield ideal radiational cooling conditions with mostly clear skies, light to calm winds with lows in the 20s with a few upper teens over the southern Dacks Fri night. We went below the NBM guidance for lows going closer to the MAV/MET guidance. High pressure remains dominate for the weekend with temps modifying to seasonal to slightly above normal temps with light winds. Ideal radiational cooling is expected again Sat night with chilly temps. The mid and upper level heights begin to fall Sun night into Mon as the the flow aloft becomes more zonal which will allow temps to run near to slight above normal. The next chance of rainfall looks like potentially Wed into Thu with a short-wave and a warm front, but precipitation looks light in the medium range/ensemble/NBM guidance.
Aviation /00Z Friday Through Tuesday/
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Northerly winds continue throughout the TAF period between 5 and 10 knots, with gusts at KALB decreasing through the next two to three hours. LLWS continues at KPOU through 10z as winds at 2 kft can range between 30 and 35 knots.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Aly Watches/Warnings/Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.
DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...05