Key messages
- 1) Dry conditions and gradually warming daytime temperatures
What Has Changed
Small craft advisories have expanded in area and have been extended in time into tonight, Friday and Friday night. Coastal flood statement for Southern Nassau for early Friday morning with brief minor coastal flooding.
Key Messages
are expected Friday through Monday. Dry conditions continue through much of next week.
2) For Friday night into the weekend, locations within our region (mainly across interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, Southern CT, parts of Eastern Suffolk NY) there will be frost potential for late night and early morning.
3) Minor coastal flooding possible in back bays of Nassau County NY for the morning high tide. For subsequent high tide cycles through early Saturday, additional minor coastal flooding possible for the same location.
Key Message 1
Daytime high temperatures trend from below normal Friday to near normal Saturday and then more above normal Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail.
Mid levels from numerical weather prediction models indicate rising heights into the weekend. Trough exits east of the Canadian Maritimes with ridge moving in from the west. The ridging weakens late this weekend into early next week. At the surface, the low pressure associated with Josephine moves well out into the Northern Atlantic and east of Canadian Maritimes through Friday as high pressure builds in from the north across our local region.
Strong surface high pressure will be the main feature heading into the weekend with prevailing dry conditions. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken allowing for lighter winds. This will further allow for greater daytime insolation and greater nighttime radiational cooling with a more vast range in temperature between max and min.
Surface high pressure weakens and shifts farther south and west Sunday night into early next week. Dry conditions prevail through this weekend and into next week despite a cold front moving across late Monday into Monday night. Temperatures warm up for daytime highs this weekend and into early next week. Warmest day looks to be Monday with models showing relatively highest 850mb temperatures near 11 to 13 degrees C. Some locations are forecast to reach near 70 degrees Fahrenheit for Monday's highs. That is the warmest day of the forecast period through next week.
Key Message 2
With more radiational cooling each night, temperatures in outlying areas and rural sections will drop further.
Frost is expected to develop in these areas, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. For tonight, patchy frost is forecast across parts of the interior and will be limited in spatial extent due to winds staying up in the boundary layer. Lows tonight range from mid 30s to upper 40s for much of the area.
Larger areas of frost forecast late Friday night into early Saturday morning as well as late Saturday night into early Sunday morning mainly across the interior, coastal CT and within Suffolk County NY.
Frost formation Sunday night into early Monday morning is forecast to be more restricted to the interior zones as more SW surface winds develop but stay light. High pressure will be weakening for this timeframe across the local region as it shifts farther south and west of the region. Forecast lows Sunday night range across Long Island more in the upper 30s to lower 50s as a result.
Now we already have ended the growing season across interior Southern CT, Orange NY, Putnam NY, Rockland NY, Northern Westchester NY, Passaic NJ, Western Bergen NJ, Western Essex NJ, Western Union NJ as of October 21st.
For those zones still with an active growing season, the zones with the relatively higher chance of meeting thresholds for frost advisory and perhaps even freeze headlines would be Eastern Suffolk with lows for portion of Suffolk, primarily around the Pine Barrens into start of Twin Forks, forecast to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s along with areas of frost forecast. This areal extent of this at this point forecast to be less than half of the zone so there are no headlines issued regarding this at this time.
Key Message 3
With the approach of a full moon late this weekend and a persistent easterly swell water levels will be elevated through the next several high tide cycles. Brief minor flooding of the more vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline is possible for the Nassau south shore bays with the Friday morning high tide cycle. Thus a coastal flood statement for the Friday morning high tide has been issued for this possibility. Subsequent high tide cycles through early Saturday are expected to get near minor coastal flood benchmarks. Therefore additional coastal flood headlines may be needed over the next few days.
Aviation /00Z Friday Through Tuesday/
High pressure gradually builds in from the northwest through Friday as Subtropical Storm Josephine tracks away from the offshore waters and further into the Atlantic.
VFR thru the TAF period.
N flow this evening with speeds around 10 kt or less. Gusts toward 20 kt may develop after 3Z, and linger through the morning before diminishing. Gusts may also be more occasional at some terminals. Flow gradually veers NNE or NE on Friday, with speeds lowering under 10 kt into late day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts overnight into Friday AM may be more occasional.
Outlook For 00Z Saturday Through Tuesday
Friday night through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
Marine
For tonight, low level cold air advection is expected to make for more gusts by late this evening and overnight. The RAP and HRRR model BUFKIT have pretty good agreement of gusts 25-30 kt range latter half of this evening into overnight over the waters.
With the forecast trend upward overall for tonight regarding winds, SCAs were extended in time through tonight for all non-ocean zones. For all non-ocean zones except NY Harbor, the SCA goes until 10AM Friday whereas for NY Harbor, the SCA ends at 6AM Friday. Expecting another round of gusts near 25 kt for waters surrounding Long Island Friday morning but not as much across the NY Harbor.
For Friday afternoon, gusts all marine zones forecast to lower below SCA thresholds. However ocean seas will remain elevated into SCA range and this extends into Friday night. Do not think this will prevail the entirety of Friday night, just the evening. Ocean SCA has been extended until 10PM Friday night but for Moriches to Montauk Point until midnight Friday night.
Thereafter for rest of Friday night and through early next week, a weak enough pressure gradient across the waters with conditions mainly below SCA thresholds forecast for all marine zones.
Okx Watches/Warnings/Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ353-355.
DISCUSSION...JE/JM AVIATION...DR MARINE...JM