Key messages
- 1) Dry and seasonable conditions continue through early next week, with frost possible this weekend.
What Has Changed
No changes needed. Coastal flooding advisories remain in effect for many locations. Check the latest CFW for updates. Also, see the marine forecast discussion below for details about the small craft advisories into Friday.
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable conditions continue through early next week, with frost possible this weekend.
Surface high pressure remains to the north through Saturday with dry and seasonable conditions expected to continue. Tonight's low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to 40s. For Friday and Saturday, surface high pressure extends southward from Canada with dry cold fronts bringing in cooler air. High temperatures stay in the 50s to low 60s while overnight lows plummet into the 30s for most. The exception will be east of the I-95 corridor where low temperatures stay in the low 40s. Frost is possible Friday night and Saturday night.
High pressure will continue to build southward into the region Sunday through Tuesday. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected each day with light north to east winds. A backdoor cold front could try to push into the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, but will have very little to no moisture with it to produce any precipitation. A surge of cooler temperatures will follow behind the front for the day on Wednesday.
Aviation /00Z Friday Through Tuesday/
Winds become light overnight before shifting to northeast on Friday. Winds blow 5 to 10 knots on Friday before becoming light and variable overnight. On Saturday, winds shift to easterly, remaining light throughout the day. VFR conditions are expected each day.
VFR conditions Sunday through Monday night. Winds light and variable through the period as high pressure sits overhead. Winds then turn out of the NNE on Tuesday AOB 10 knots for the most part.
Marine
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue across the Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal potomac overnight into Friday. Winds will diminish in the northern Bay, but the middle Chesapeake Bay waters will likely remain elevated at least for a portion of the afternoon.
Friday evening through Saturday, light winds are expected across the waters. The exception will be in the southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay where wind gusts near advisory criteria, so that SCA may need to be extended in time.
Light winds expected Sunday and Monday with high pressure overhead. However, by Tuesday winds will turn out of the NNE and increase a bit. It is possible that winds could approach SCA criteria in channeling flow along the Chesapeake Bay.
Tides/Coastal Flooding
Elevated tide levels are expected through the weekend as we approach the Full Moon on October 26, along with being in King Tide season (though we are already past the highest astronomical tides that were at the beginning of October). Sensitive locations are forecast to reach Action Stage during most of the high tide cycles this week, with Annapolis, Solomons Island, Dahlgren, Straits Point, and Alexandria expected to reach minor over the next few cycles. Numerous Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for these areas, with extensions possible in some locations. The presence of northerly winds is likely to keep tidal flooding within Minor flood stage.
Lwx Watches/Warnings/Advisories
DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for MDZ008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for MDZ016-018. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for MDZ017. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for VAZ057. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>532- 538>540. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ533-534-537- 541>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/CJL AVIATION...AVS/KLW/CJL MARINE...AVS/KLW/CJL